As the "standard" of infrastructure construction, the sales volume, operating rate and operating hours of excavators are the vane that reflects the economic changes such as infrastructure construction and observation of fixed asset investment.
On November 19, CCTV Finance and Sany Heavy Industry (600031) and Tree Root Internet jointly created the "CCTV Financial Excavator Index" released the first data, in October, the overall operating rate of China's construction machinery was 61.35%, an increase of 1.39 percentage points month-on-month, a new high in the second half of the year. A total of 12 provinces in the country have an operating rate of more than 70%, of which Anhui, Jiangxi and Zhejiang are the top three with 80.19%, 74.98% and 74.06% respectively.
In terms of sub-regions, the operating rates of many major economic provinces remained stable at a high level, laying the foundation for the continuous improvement of economic operation in the fourth quarter. In October, 26 provinces across the country achieved positive month-on-month growth in operating rates, among the top 10 provinces in terms of operating rates, central provinces accounted for 4 seats, and Henan and Anhui ranked among the top two in the country in terms of month-on-month growth. From March to October this year, provinces that maintained a high operating rate of 70% in each month include Anhui, Hainan, Zhejiang, Jiangxi and Hubei.
In terms of equipment, excavators are the largest number of provinces with the largest operating rate growth among all equipment, and a total of 29 provinces have achieved positive month-on-month growth in operating rate. In October, the average operating rate of excavation equipment was 65.79%, an increase of 4.11 percentage points month-on-month. In addition, since March this year, the total pumping volume of concrete equipment in the country has remained high. In October, seven provinces, including Fujian, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shanghai, achieved a month-on-month increase in pumping volume, of which Fujian Province increased by 12.97 percentage points month-on-month.
Thanks to the seasonal factors of "Golden Nine and Silver Ten", in October, the number of operating hours of excavators in China also increased significantly, and the construction machinery started to boom.
According to the data of Komatsu's official website, in October, the number of operating hours of China's Komatsu excavators was 101.7 hours, an increase of 14% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year, which is the first year-on-year positive growth since April 2023. From January to October this year, the total number of operating hours of China's Komatsu excavators was 881.9 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%.
Compared with the recovery of excavator starts, excavator sales in October are still weak.
According to the statistics of major excavator manufacturers by China Construction Machinery Industry Association, 14,584 excavators of various types were sold in October 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 28.9%, of which 6,796 were domestic, a year-on-year decrease of 40.1%; 7,788 units were exported, down 14.9% year-on-year. From January to October 2023, a total of 163396 excavators were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 26%; Among them, 74,871 units were domestic, a year-on-year decrease of 43%; 88,525 units were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 1.04%.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the completion of real estate development investment from January to September 2023 decreased by 9.1% year-on-year, and the month-on-month decline expanded; From January to September, the area of new housing starts fell by 23.4%. From January to September, infrastructure investment increased by 8.64% year-on-year.
According to the research report of Zheshang Securities, the real estate policy continues to be favorable, trillions of national bonds have increased infrastructure investment, and the demand is expected to be marginally good. According to the calculation of the 8th year of excavators as the peak period of renewal, the domestic excavator renewal demand will bottom out in 2023-2024. The domestic market is mainly driven by the demand for updates, and a new round of update cycle will be opened. It is expected that the sales of excavators and lifting machinery will bottom out in 2023-2024, and the sales of concrete machinery will rise.